Munich 2.0 vs Yalta 2.0 or both?

The events of the past few days have once again highlighted the fragility of the relationship between the United States and Europe, particularly concerning the war in Ukraine. US policy increasingly points to a desire to end the war over the heads of those involved, while Europe does not seem to be finding the correct answers to the situation.

Author: Zoltán Kész

US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he has held lengthy talks with Vladimir Putin on peace clearly shows that Washington does not want to settle the conflict on Ukraine’s terms. His comment that he believes both sides want peace ignores the fact that Russian aggression has created this situation and that Ukraine is not just a bargaining chip but the victim of war itself. All this recalls historical examples of the past: while some see this as Munich 2.0, another stage in the politics of appeasement, others see a new Yalta 2.0 unfolding, where the great powers divide the world along their own interests.

Concerns are further heightened by US Vice President JD Vance’s speech in Munich, which reflects a radical new approach to US foreign policy. Vance did not identify Russia and China as the main threats to Europe, but the irresponsibility and weakness of the European political elite itself. The continent is preoccupied with its own internal contradictions, he said, while underspending on defense and engaging in domestic political games rather than developing a real security strategy. This approach exonerates Moscow and Beijing and suggests that European leaders are drifting closer to crisis through no fault of their own. On another note, Vance was right in pointing out that Europe has been sitting idly in the past decades and has forgotten to spend on defense, mainly due to green and left-wing pacifist lobbying. Now that most countries have downsized their armies, they are facing the almost impossible: to pull together and create a new defense system within NATO to counter the Russian threat. 

While European leaders are perplexed by the new US rhetoric, an important meeting between Russian and US foreign ministers took place in Riyadh. Although the talks did not produce any breakthroughs, they clarified that Washington and Moscow want to continue the dialogue on Ukraine’s future. The fact that representatives of the European Union and Ukraine were not invited only reinforces fears that a new geopolitical bargain is being struck at the expense of Europe.

Events are forcing European leaders to define their positions clearly. Will they continue to drift into protracted negotiations in which others decide for them, or will they finally take a firm stand on Ukraine’s sovereignty? They must make it clear that there is no bargain over Ukraine’s territorial integrity and that peace cannot mean accepting the policies of an aggressor. The European community must now prove it can act as an independent geopolitical actor. Otherwise, we could well witness a repetition of history, whether in the form of a new Munich or a new Yalta.

Cover Photo Credit: ChatGPT