“We Were Trump Before Trump”: What the Democratic Party Must Learn from Hungary

“In international politics, we Hungarians are the only ones who have consistently said the same things as Trump since 2010. That’s why, in America, they see us as having been ‘Trump before Trump,’” said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in a December 2024 interview. There are many reasons to criticize Orbán, but he was not wrong in this statement. While Hungarian and American politics are not identical – given their vastly different historical, cultural, religious, and economic contexts – the form of global populism that Orbán himself calls “illiberalism” was pioneered by him in the Western world. And it began in 2010.

Author: Levente Nagy-Pál

This system developed gradually but took a more radical shape in the fall of 2013. The warning signs were there even earlier, yet the Hungarian opposition failed to recognize them. To be fair, this was a relatively new political model at the time, with its only precedent being in Russia. However, the Western world has always treated Russia as an outlier, often failing to fully understand it. For fifteen years now, Hungary has operated under an illiberal populist system. One whose key elements are now appearing in American politics. It would be wise to learn from this experience, especially for the Democrats, who, in just two months since their defeat, have already begun repeating the same mistakes Hungary’s left made after 2010 in its failed attempts to counter Orbán. The long-term consequence of this political failure in Hungary was the near-total collapse of the left. Today, it barely exists.

Since we now have clear lessons on which strategies are entirely ineffective against illiberal populism, it’s time to learn from these mistakes. If we don’t, liberal democracy in America will weaken and it may take a long time before it can recover.

Hungary’s Warning to US Democrats

Last weekend, protests took place at 1,200 locations across the United States against President Trump, Elon Musk- who sees himself as an authority on virtually every issue – and Trumpism in general. These protests echo the atmosphere in Hungary during the 2010s, when the Hungarian left, dazzled by spectacular mass demonstrations, came to believe it enjoyed the support of the majority of Hungarian society. They didn’t want to believe the public opinion polls because, driven by wishful thinking, they failed to notice they had lost the trust of the very people they once considered their base: Hungarian workers and a middle class that had been economically shaken during their time in power.

Contributing to this shift was the fact that Fidesz, the party of Viktor Orbán, effectively managed to brand the left-wing opposition as the “luxury left.” Orbán portrayed them as an elitist political force, completely out of touch with ordinary people—a narrative he successfully pushed beginning in 2006. It wasn’t a hard sell: since 2002, the Hungarian left had been led at the prime ministerial level exclusively by billionaire politicians, and the same label applied to most of their ministers as well.

Looking at today’s American political landscape – particularly the Democratic Party – unfortunately, we see many similarities. According to recent polls, the Democrats are hitting record lows in popularity. A CNN poll puts their support at just 29 percent among all voters. Within the party, the same kind of questions are being debated as those that swirled around the Hungarian opposition in the 2010s: What can be done in the face of a government like this? Should we stage actions, troll them, collaborate with the Republicans, or reject everything outright?

The good news is that the answer might also be found in Hungary’s recent political history even if Orbán is still in power today, his grip has weakened significantly. So, let’s take a closer look at the factors that are similar in the political trajectories of these two countries, with the caveat that Hungary is about fifteen years “ahead.”

Trust lost is a vote lost

One of the biggest mistakes of the Hungarian left was believing that their voters would automatically return once they “realized their mistake.” But politics and society don’t work that way. Voters move on. Once a party loses public trust, regaining it becomes extremely difficult.

This is precisely what’s happening in the United States right now. Rural voters, the working class, and even some suburban voters who once supported the Democrats are no longer  expecting the party to care about them again.  The old campaign messages no longer work because Trump has fundamentally reshaped the political discourse. Democrats must adapt to this new reality instead of assuming that nothing has changed. Democracy should not be taken for granted. It is an ideal that must be vigilantly fought for.

Populists do not collapse on their own

A recent New York Times Magazine article stated that the best chance for the Democrats after Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024 is to “play dead” – that is to withdraw and wait until the Republican Party tears itself apart. The author suggests that Democrats should avoid confrontation and not seek a new strategy but simply wait until Trump’s support wanes, and only then start politicizing. This is the worst possible advice. James Carville’s article assumes that Trump’s administration will implode under its own weight from its scandals, economic decisions, or internal conflicts. However, recent history tells a different story. Orbán’s government has repeatedly faced massive corruption scandals, economic difficulties, and international criticism. Yet, he has stayed in power because the decisive voters aren’t swayed by scandals but by the imagined  vision the politician lays out for them.

Likewise, Trump has survived two impeachment proceedings, countless legal battles, and relentless media attacks. If the Democratic bubble had repeated that Trump is a criminal and an unfit leader three times more, Trump would have grown even stronger. Why is that? Because whoever controls the public discourse holds the advantage. Trump has dominated the public debate ever since he appeared on the political stage. Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 was more of a surprise than Trump’s resounding win in 2024. If the Democrats fail to offer real alternatives to working American families and small business owners, Trumpism will continue to survive the next cycle.

The cost of ignoring defeat

After Trump’s re-election, not a single leading Democratic politician took responsibility for the party’s failure. Instead, the party establishment acted as if nothing had happened, continuing with the same failed strategies that had already led to previous defeats. 

The Hungarian opposition made the same mistake after every election loss (2014, 2018, 2022). There were no significant resignations, no fundamental strategic transformation, and no effort to rebuild with fresh energy. A striking example occurred in 2022 when, on election night, only one of the six opposition parties backing the joint prime ministerial candidate even stood beside him on stage. Less than two years later, none of those parties remained a relevant political force in Hungary.

Failing to take a clear stance after a major defeat can have serious consequences. When party leaders refuse to acknowledge reality, activists and supporters become disillusioned, losing faith in their ability to bring about real change. Meanwhile, without accountability, the same failed strategies persist, creating an opening for populists to strengthen their grip and maintain dominance.

To this day, no significant Democratic leader has explicitly apologized for the 2024 election defeat—even though the loss was substantial. While figures like Senator Bernie Sanders have criticized the party’s direction, calling it a betrayal of the working class, and others have expressed regret over campaign strategies, regret is not the same as accountability.

It’s not just about acknowledging failure. Democrats have also failed to take any meaningful corrective action.  Until this changes, Trump will remain in a position of dominance, controlling not just the political discourse but the entire political landscape. Starting with a clean slate Democrats would have the opportunity to start afresh and win back the voter groups they lost by 2024.

Blaming and looking down on voters

We all see it—on TV, in late-night shows, YouTube videos, and internet memes—Trump voters being portrayed as dumb, foolish, easily manipulated, or even “brain-dead.” Even those who simply didn’t turn out to vote are labeled as “guilty,” lazy, or irresponsible. Within the Democratic voter echo chamber, these jokes and memes are seen as harmless fun. But in reality, this is no laughing matter. 

The voter is always right.

However, this fact is increasingly being questioned. In the political arena, it is usually the losing side that blames the voters for not choosing them. A voter always makes the most logical decision for themselves within their own socio-cultural environment. Political communication is necessary for a party to effectively convey its messages within this environment and reach the voters. If this does not happen, the reasons must be identified to understand what went wrong.

Donald Trump didn’t just win the Electoral College; he won the popular vote as well. In other words, more Americans voted for him than for Kamala Harris. Now, put yourself in the shoes of an average American citizen. What would they think of a political movement that openly mocks and belittles them? This kind of rhetoric only strengthens the resolve of Trump’s supporters, pushing them closer together and making them immune to opposition messaging.

No one wants to vote for a party that disrespects them. Populists capitalize on this, positioning themselves as the only force that respects the “ordinary citizen.” Instead of asking why voters don’t trust them, Democrats are repeating the same mistake the Hungarian left made: they dismiss them entirely. This arrogance is the greatest gift to populists.

Let’s look at what happened in Hungary between 2010 and 2024. The opposition routinely referred to Fidesz voters as “sheep” and “stupid.” This only deepened the divide between urban liberal circles and the rural, working-class voters who increasingly rallied behind Orbán. Over time, Fidesz – the ruling party – successfully absorbed the very social groups that once formed the backbone of liberal and left-wing support: Hungary’s hard-working, blue-collar citizens.

In 2010, Fidesz won by a significant majority. From then on, Orbán’s primary objective was to hold that voter base together. By 2025, the opposition had become so irrelevant that Orbán totally ignored their voters. In fact, in his speech on March 15, he called Hungarian citizens who disagree with him “bugs to be cleaned up”.

If Democrats continue down this path, they will meet the same fate. Orbán secured three consecutive election victories after 2010 by speaking directly to his base and maintaining their loyalty. The Democrats must ask themselves: will they learn from history, or will they repeat the mistakes that led to the collapse of Hungary’s left?

The political echo chamber trap: When a party campaigns for itself

After their election defeat, some factions of the Democratic Party did not focus on how to win back lost voters. Instead, they proposed increasingly radical ideas. Rather than reaching out to broader segments of American society, they doubled down on their own political bubble. The party’s more radical wing believes that by amplifying identity politics, they can attract new supporters. In reality, however, they are isolating themselves within an elitist, self-reinforcing circle, a bubble that continues to shrink over time.

Some advocates of the movements Trump labels as “woke” believe that if they push their agenda even harder, they will reach a wider audience. But the opposite is happening they are becoming more isolated, speaking only to an increasingly narrow group.

Hungary’s opposition parties fell into the same trap after 2010. Instead of engaging with voters, they spoke to their own intellectual circles. They wrote outraged articles for their own media platforms, organized political stunts that had little real impact on public opinion, and engaged in performative activism such as tearing down police barriers in front of Orbán’s office, displaying sacks of potatoes in parliament, and staging theatrical protests. These actions created the impression that the opposition was not a viable governing alternative but rather a group of political clowns engaging in spectacle to mask their own impotence. Meanwhile, populist leaders – both Orbán and Trump – positioned themselves as the “calm, steady force.” In the eyes of voters, they represented stability, while the opposition appeared chaotic and extreme.

What is the solution?

If the Democrats want to avoid the fate of Hungary’s left, they must immediately break out of their political echo chamber and reconnect with real voters. The rise of Trumpism – an illiberal, populist movement – is not a fleeting phenomenon but a new political reality fueled by deep societal demand. Ignoring it won’t make it disappear; Democrats must confront it head-on.

The lesson is simple:

don’t wave the white flag and play dead, don’t get caught up in divisive ideological debates, and don’t resort to trolling. Instead, Democrats must go out and connect with American voters with the real working class, the middle class dreaming of a better life and show them a real path toward a better future.

To do this, Democrats need to rebuild their connection with the working class. Over time, the Democratic elite and radical intellectuals have become increasingly detached from everyday Americans, prioritizing ideological battles over the tangible struggles people face in their daily lives. Unless they refocus on these real-world concerns, they will continue to lose ground.

Moreover, Democrats must escape their ideological echo chamber. A party that only appeals to its own circles will never win national elections. Populism cannot be defeated by extremism and bubble communication, but by an inclusive, centrist politics that speaks to a broad electorate.

At the core of this strategy must be a compelling, positive vision—one that offers a real alternative to the emotional pull of populism. Simply demonizing Trump is not enough; voters need to see a strong, clear, and hopeful message that resonates with their aspirations and concerns.

And above all, Democrats cannot afford to sit back and wait. If they “play dead,” they will be politically dead. The campaign against J.D. Vance is already a year behind, and there is no time left for hesitation. The party needs a charismatic Democratic leader. Someone who can step forward, launch the campaign with force, and rally support before it’s too late.

Cover photo credit: Levente Nagy-Pál